November update on Arakan State
After a year on the offensive, the Arakan Army has nearly captured the entire countryside.
In July, when the MNDAA began their assault on the city of Lashio, it prompted the question of whether the Arakan Army or the Kokang Army (MNDAA) would be the first to capture a Regional Military Command from the faltering Burmese Junta. The MNDAA was bearing down on the North-East Regional Military Command (RMC)🗺️in Lashio, while the Arakan Army was preparing its assault on the Western RMC 🗺️ in the town of Ann.
Shockingly by August, it was clear that the Lashio RMC was about to fall.
But while the MNDAA were focusing their efforts on the city of Lashio, the Arakan Army were aiming for the complete eradication of Junta military forces from the state of Arakan (/Rakhine). The AA was closing in on the RMC HQ of Ann, but also rapidly advancing on other towns and military bases across the state, capturing the luxury resort-town of Ngapali 🗺️ - along with its two military bases and airport - in early July (and capturing the first functional air strip🗺️ by Resistance forces across the country), moving on Thandwe 🗺️ town by mid-July, the town of Kyeintali 🗺️ in August and a naval base in Kwin Wine 🗺️ by September. In Northern Arakan, the AA captured the bulk of Maungdaw 🗺️ town in August (with a fair share of unfortunate atrocities being committed against the Rohingya population in the city).
In the past month, the Arakan Army has been attacking along four main axes:
Approaching the Western Regional Military Command in Ann,
Continuing their assault on the final Junta positions in Maungdaw,
Attacking the town of Toungup and its associated Military Operations Command,
Advancing south towards the city of Gwa on the very edge of Arakan State.
A map showing the axes of attack by the Arakan Army in recent months along with the remaining pockets of Junta control across the State.
The remaining Junta positions in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu 🗺️ have not yet been the focus of concerted offensives by the Arakan Army.
This post will provide an update on Arakan Army progress in all these areas, and attempt to take stock of the broader trends of the conflict in Arakan.
Ann Regional Military Command
(this section was written on November 24th and contains information up to that date)
Following the capture of the town of Minbya by the Arakan Army in late January 2024, there has been a constant, concerted push by the AA towards Ann, systematically assaulting and capturing a number of large and fortified hilltop outposts along the Yangon-Sittwe highway towards Ann. Since then they have advanced over 100km to reach and practically besiege the Ann Regional Military Command, reportedly capturing all the combat units in the town and taking up positions all around the command.
The main outposts captured by the AA on the route to Ann are (from north to south):
Ramaung Bridge Outpost (2024-02) 🗺️
No. 9 Central Military Training School (2024-02-26) 🗺️
Yaw Chaung Tactical Operations Centre (2024-01-26) 🗺️
Point-408 Outpost (2024-02-18) 🗺️
Point-253 Outpost (2024-04-24) 🗺️
Swayt Chaung Tactical Operations Centre (2024-04-26) 🗺️
Taw Hein Strategic Operations Centre (2024-06-23) 🗺️
Mae Taung Strategic Base (2024-10-07) 🗺️
After this the AA started their offensive of the garrisons at Ann town proper.
The No. 2 Military Hospital was captured by October 23rd, the 373rd Light Infantry Battalion was captured by Oct 26th, with the 345th Ordinance Company and the Western RMC HQ of Military Intelligence were captured around a similar time (when the battle is completed the Arakan Army will formally announce the captured date of all the bases - but right now we are mostly relying on media reports and geolocations).
That week, fighting reached the 919th Battlefield Engineering Battalion on the western outskirts of the RMC complex, and other clashes took place along much of the outskirts of the town.
It appears that by the end of October, the Arakan Army had taken up positions within much of the town itself, with airstrikes reported on the evening of October 26th in Ward No. 4 and near the Ann airfield.
Drone video published by Junta-affiliated telegram channels on November 9th show Arakan Army troops had taken up positions on the outskirts of the 371st Light Infantry Battalion, and in areas separating most of the Ann urban area from the military base complex to the south of town.
On November 10th, a daring attempt (considering Arakan Army troops were within hundreds of metres of the airfield) by the Junta to fly reinforcements into Ann with four helicopters and two Y-12 planes, demonstrated the dire situation Junta troops were facing on the ground, with Arakan Army soldiers advancing from several directions and having fully besieged most military bases for weeks. A helicopter was shot and needed to conduct an emergency landing, but reinforcements were delivered.
In the fortnight since then, the Arakan Army appears to have advanced further into the town, with some unconfirmed local reports even claiming that the Arakan Army has now taken over the airfield itself.
The Arakan Army is consistently cagey about telegraphing its gains, generally waiting until an entire area has been captured before announcing details about any of it. Indeed, most of the sources we have ‘confirming’ Arakan Army gains within the city come from pro-Junta reports of air or drone strikes on Arakan Army positions in the town. Additional information comes from local (Arakan-Army-Friendly) media, but these reports often need to be taken at face-value; it’s rare that they report fake news, but they will often prematurely declare an area captured.
Therefore it’s hard to paint an exact picture of the present situation. This is made even more challenging by the lack of documentation regarding the location of many of the military units and localities within Ann, which often need to be estimated by putting together context clues in reporting. Below is my best assessment of the current situation, though it is likely underreporting Arakan Army gains in some areas.
In the map, blue arrows represent the assumed axis of attack from the Arakan Army’s assault on the town, and purple-hatched circles show confirmed locations under Arakan Army control via geolocation.
What is clear, is that the Arakan Army has presently advanced to a closed inner perimetre surrounding the Western RMC HQ, and are within 1km of the staff offices from all directions. The group has fully captured two of the three infantry combat battalions in the town, and has significantly entered (if not fully captured yet) the third.
Areas confirmed to have been captured are:
(click on the map icon to see its location)
371st Light Infantry Battalion 🗺️
373rd Light Infantry Battalion 🗺️
374th Artillery Battalion 🗺️
345th Ordinance Company 🗺️
No. 2 Military Hospital 🗺️
Western RMC Office of Military Intelligence 🗺️
No. 8 Combat Organisation Training School (*) 🗺️
757th Electrical Workshop
One-Mile Hill Outpost🗺️
Ann Telegraph Tower Hill Outpost 🗺️
(Large parts of the) 372nd Light Infantry Battalion 🗺️
Areas reliably reported to have been captured are:
926th Supply and Transport Company (*) 🗺️
No. 10 Military Police Division
Auk Village 🗺️
Ann Old Town 🗺️
Ann Airfield 🗺️
Areas remaining under Junta control are:
Western Regional Military Command HQ 🗺️
No 757/2 Electrical Workshop (*) 🗺️
No. 8 Signals Corps (*) 🗺️
No. 9 Signals Corps🗺️
919th Battlefield Engineering Battalion
946th Construction and Engineering Company
* shows locations I have estimated a location for but cannot confirm
Luckily, unlike the case in Lashio, much of the fighting seems to be separated from the urban civilian areas of Ann, and there have been scant reports of clashes (beyond initial skirmishes) in civilian areas. There have been reports of villages surrounding the military bases in Ann having been burnt by retreating Junta forces (and this is a widespread ‘defensive’ tactic around besieged Junta outposts), at least one of which can be confirmed through satellite fire-detection. Additionally, there have been some reports of airstrikes on civilian areas in the town, however it is unclear if this is a response to AA presence or retaliatory strikes by the Junta against populated areas it has lost control of.
What is clear, however, is that the Western Regional Military Command is surviving on borrowed time. It was only a month ago that the first unit on the outskirts of Ann was captured by the Arakan Army, now more than 10 units have been captured, and the defensive perimeter of Junta troops around the RMC HQ has shrunk to a kilometre. Local media has reported that Arakan Army snipers are shooting into the Regional Military Command. Despite the reinforcements being air-lifted into Ann, since the injection of troops, the Junta has only haemorrhaged their fortified positions across the town.
This has major implications for the organisation and cohesion of the remaining units in Arakan that are not currently under assault by the AA, given that the Regional Military Commands are the centre-of-gravity for Junta command and control (which will be the subject of a future post). For example, the Sit-Tat units in Toungup are organised under the 5th Military Operations Command - a brigade-level unit under the Western Military Command in control of several battalions across Toungup, Gwa, Thandwe and Kyaukphyu - is unlikely to be able to efficiently and effectively manage the disparate units that remain under its control without the support of the Regional Military Command - let alone coordinate with other commands such as the Sittwe TOC. These lower units will likely be forced to act autonomously or scramble to reorganise their command among the (very limited) remaining intact units. (The ability of unit autonomy was a big focus for the Tatamadaw’s preparation and defence of Lashio and the North-Eastern RMC. It did not do them much good).
However, it does appear that much of the recent heavy-lifting of the Sit-Tat’s military organisation within Arakan has centred on Sittwe, the state capital, with media reporting much more comprehensive defensive preparations along the ‘Sittwe Perimeter’ than we saw in preparation for the assault on Ann. This could be in-part an artifact of the greater population and connectivity of Sittwe, but it does appear to represent a genuine trend from the SAC to prioritise the defence of the administrative capital of Rakhine (/Arakan) than the military centre.
Following current trends, Ann and the Western RMC HQ will likely be fully captured by the Arakan Army in a timeframe of weeks.
Toungup Town
(this section was written on November 24th and contains information up to that date)
Under the Western Military Command, the Sit-Tat military is largely organised into Brigade-level three Military Operations Command (plus the Sittwe Regional Operations Command 🗺️), each commanding around 10 combat battalions. The Arakan Army has already captured the Kyauktaw-based MOC-9 🗺️ and the Buthidaung-based MOC-15 🗺️, having fully captured those townships in February and May respectively. The remaining Military Operations Command is based to the south of the town of Toungup. The town and military bases have largely been surrounded from the south and the north by the Arakan Army for most of the year - especially since the capture of Thandwe in July, but could still be supplied by road from the Western edge of Bago region.
Clashes escalated around Toungup township in August, with Junta airstrikes being launched on surrounding villages and Arakan Army troops attacking Junta positions on the outskirts of the perimeter shortly after.
Junta strongholds in the township were in positions and hills surrounding Toungup University 🗺️ to the north of the town, checkpoints within Toungup itself, an artillery base on the Pan Myauk Taung (hill) 🗺️ overlooking the town, and the military complex surrounding the MOC-5 headquarters 🗺️ to the south of town.
Around the start of November, the AA began assaulting these positions, with reports of them capturing the Pan Myauk Taung artillery base in the first week of November and the AA reaching the Kine Hral Bridge 🗺️ in the middle of town by November 10th, according to reports on pro-Junta telegram channels and around November 18th began clashing at frontline outposts of the MOC-5 compound. Around a similar time (we will find out after the battle is concluded) the AA overtook Junta positions at Toungup University.
According to local pro-Revolutionary media (generally reliable), the Arakan Army has captured the bulk of Toungup town, with the few junta checkpoints which were stationed within the town having withdrawn to the Military Operations Command. The AA has attacked frontline outposts surrounding the MOC-5 HQ and is assaulting frontline posts of the 344th LIB at Hpone Nyo Bridge 🗺️.
The situation in Taungup is less clear, as there have been fewer claims from all parties and no geolocatable footage, but it seems clear that the majority of the Junta presence in the town has evaporated. However, the defensive lines around the MOC-5 bases seems intact for now - though it should be noted that previous lines around Toungup. have quickly been breached.
Following current trends, the MOC-5 HQ will likely be fully captured by the Arakan Army in a timeframe of weeks.
Gwa township
Until very recently, the area Junta control extending into Gwa township from Ayawaddy Region was the largest remaining area in Arakan under Junta control (ignoring Munaung Island which I will touch on later) , stretching roughly 100km north from Gwa until the AA captured Thandwe in July and then 50km until Kyeintali 🗺️ was captured in August. In comparison, the perimeter around Sittwe extends only 20km or so towards Minn Chaung stream🗺️.
Starting in October, the Arakan Army began their offensive south - for the first time - towards Gwa, crossing the Kyeintali River and advancing to the Kyway Chaing beach 🗺️ area by mid-October and Taing Kyoe 🗺️ in the first week of November.
This week, the AA advanced further towards Gwa, reaching and capturing the villages of Sat Thwar 🗺️, Pein Hne Kone 🗺️ and Zee Kone 🗺️ after clashing in the area for about two weeks.
There are only two battalions based in Gwa, however, its direct road connections and proximity to Ayewaddy Region and the relatively combat-unaffected South-Western Regional Military Command means that the Junta will be able to reinforce the town substantially as the Arakan Army approaches.
Therefore, despite the rapid gains made by the Arakan Army, Gwa town and its garrison do not appear to be in imminent danger of falling.
Following current trends, Gwa and the surrounding military bases will likely be fully captured by the Arakan Army in a timeframe of roughly 4-6 months.
Maungdaw town
The battle for Maungdaw town began in August, and the 5th Border Guard Police battalion 🗺️ is still holding out against the Arakan Army assault. Geolocated videos show Arakan Army troops within metres of the 125-acre base from all directions, but have not yet been able to capture it.
The complex situation in Maungdaw with Junta troops, border guard police and various Rohingya militias is quite hard to parse, especially given the paucity of reporting by the Arakan Army and affiliated local media since the atrocities committed in early August by the Arakan Army against the town’s Rohingya population, likely leaving hundreds dead.
It appears that in September, the Junta presence in the town itself had been entirely defeated, with hundreds of troops surrendering or being captured, or retreating to the base of the BGP-5. Sources within the Arakan Army told affiliated media that they had captured the final remaining outposts within the town itself - the Social Welfare and Resettlement Office 🗺️ along with a nearby monastery - on September 8th.
Uniquely, in Burma, even low-resolution recent satellite imagery shows the pockmarked landscape surrounding the BGP-5 Base, with numerous and significant airstrike and artillery impacts being clear - especially near the northern gate. This level of intense fighting is - as far as I can remember - unique in Burma and more reminiscent of landscapes in Ukraine than in this civil war.
It would be foolish to guess how long the remaining position will hold-off against the Arakan Army assaults since I would never have guessed it would last nearly 3 months under siege and assault. However it is clear that the situation in Maungdaw is completely unsustainable for the Junta, with limited and unenforceable manpower and supplies, it is only a matter of time until the base capitulates or is captured.
Following current trends I would be shocked if the BGP-5 base is not fully captured by the end of the year.
Remaining Junta strongholds in Arakan
Sittwe
The Sittwe perimeter appears to be the main defensive stronghold that the Junta in Arakan is preparing to defend. In July, the Junta began depopulating and relocating residents from scores of villages on the outskirts of Sittwe to prepare defences. In August they began erecting defensive infrastructure in the city itself to protect it from AA attack.
Recent satellite imagery shows that they have begun digging significant fortified trench lines and berms on the city's outskirts to provide further layers of defences against the eventual Arakan Army assault.
The defensive lines on recent satellite imagery around the outskirts of Sittwe.
Presently the Junta frontline extends around 20km out from Sittwe city to the Min Chaung stream 🗺️ area, but contracting closer to Sittwe as it follows the stream south towards Shwe Min Gan 🗺️, less than 10km from the centre of Sittwe.
The present situation in Sittwe with the limit of Junta control shown by an orange line.
It is likely that once the Arakan Amy has captured the Western RMC in Ann, their focus will shift to assaulting the defensive lines around Sittwe and its six combat battalions (plus 14 support and command units). It is unclear how long this battle will take, unlike in Lashio (the only other state capital to be attacked thus far), the Arakan Army cannot assault from all directions and will be forced to use vectors known and prepared for by the defending Junta troops. Moreover, the airfield in Sittwe is nestled deep behind the city from this perspective, making it far harder for the Arakan Army to threaten aerial resupply until they have essentially captured the city.
It is perhaps for these reasons that the Junta military planners appear to be placing a higher emphasis on the defence of Sittwe than they did at Ann, and they have likely already shifted much of the day-to-day command of the Western RMC units to bases in Sittwe in preparation of the assault on Ann.
The Arakan Army has stated that they view 2025 as a timeline for when they will capture all of Arakan/Rakhine. They likely had Sittwe in mind when they announced that. Sittwe will likely be the last major position to be captured (ignoring some naval bases around Kyaukphyu I’ll expand on next).
Since capturing Ponnagyun in March, the AA has only lightly pushed on the defensive lines around Sittwe, overrunning small Junta outposts until they reached the current frontline in August - but not mounting any significant assault on Junta strongholds.
Once the capture of Ann, Toungup and Maungdaw is complete, this will likely change, with substantial manpower freed up to be redirected towards Sittwe.
When this assault begins we will be better placed to assess how effective the defensive preparations made by the Junta around Sittwe are.
Kyaukphyu
Kyaukphyu is more complex. The town has a relatively small garrison that could likely be overrun by the Arakan Army without too much effort, however it is also the site of much of the Burmese Navy’s Western presence, and - crucially - significant Chinese investment and interest.
China sees Kyaukphyu as the gateway to the Bay of Bengal for industries in China’s south and west, and has been planning the development of a deep-sea port 🗺️ and expansive free trade zone 🗺️ for decades.
The Arakan Army has generally enjoyed friendly relations with authorities in Beijing, but this has soured considerably since the wholesale assault on Arakan began (before that the AA was largely a nascent actor in control of some rural areas and active in safeholds near the Chinese border). This year, however, China has thrown its support behind the Burmese Junta more clearly, offering it lines of credit and using diplomatic and economic pressure to try and stop assaults against their military positions.
Most recently, reports this month have emerged of recently negotiated deals between the Junta and Bejijing to deploy Private Military Corporations (PMCs) across Burma to guard Chinese interests (and deter Resistance assaults on these areas). Local media has specifically referred to agreements in place to deploy these PMCs in Kyaukphyu to guard the Free Trade Zone.
This obviously places high barriers to the Arakan Army assaulting these positions. I consider it likely that at some point in 2025, the AA will attack the frontline posts of the Kyaukphyu perimeter and attempt to gain control of the town’s urban area, but it will likely not attack key naval bases and free trade zones with Chinese PMCs present at the sites, either leaving a remaining few units of Junta control or - less likely - negotiating with Beijing authorities to allow the PMCs to remain and asking for Junta personnel to be expelled.
Munaung
Munaung Township / Cheduba Island 🗺️ is a 500km2 island off the coast of Arakan which remains under Junta control. In August, the Junta drastically reinforced the island - reportedly using troops that retreated from other positions - and began strict movement controls for residents.
The island is regularly used by the Burmese Navy, which would almost certainly provide significant firepower to defend the town. The notion of an amphibious assault by the Arakan Army is also something that has not been tested (indeed across Burma the only Resistance ‘naval’ operations have been small boat assaults on isolated islands in Tanintharyi). However, the island is much bigger than the Junta garrison, and it would theoretically be possible to smuggle over considerable numbers of AA troops and supplies to parts of the island without the Junta being aware.
The Arakan Army expects the complete capture of Arakan, and will likely choose to assault Munanung at some point, but it is not clear when. Despite naval firepower (which has also supported the Junta in other battles in Arakan), the small garrison in Munanung would likely not be able to defend against a concerted offensive by the Arakan Army, but the logistical challenges create significant risks to AA units involved in any attack.
Overall, the Arakan Army is rapidly progressing towards its goal of eliminating the Junta army and administration from Arakan/Rakhine state in the coming year. The areas remaining to be captured pose significant complications to this plan - and the complete capture of Kyaukphyu may need to be reconsidered with the newly reported presence of Chinese mercenaries at the site.
Although the Junta’s military command and control will likely be significantly affected by the forthcoming capture of the Ann Western RMC HQ, a lot of the responsibilities of that office have likely shifted to Sittwe, allowing a level of cohesion until Sittwe itself is assaulted - likely early next year.
The dramatic change in on-the-ground administration also poses challenges for the Rohingya community in northern Arakan/Rakhine, which has been under assault for decades by the Burmese military and now is suffering from atrocities from the Arakan Army. It is crucial that the Arakan Army takes concrete steps to restore trust and confidence in the areas it controls once conflict has passed, and affords the Rohingya communities the same rights that they grant to the Arakanese, Burmese and other communities in the state. A future post will focus on this issue in more detail - likely once Maungdaw has been fully captured.